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Evaluation of Loss of Rice Production due to Climate Change Reinforced Flood in Vietnam Using Hydrological Model and GIS.
19/11/18 04:00PM
Pham Quy Giang and Tran Trong Phuong. EnvironmentAsia, 2018, volume 11, number 3.

Abstract: This study aimed to evaluate the effects of future floods triggered by climate change reinforced extreme precipitation upon rice production with the case study of the highly rice cultivated District of Duc Tho in the North Central Region of Vietnam. 24 hour - extreme precipitation and its recurrence interval were identified by applying Probability Weighted Moment to Generalized Extreme Value distribution using historical daily observations and output of ensemble median of eight selected GCMs. The calculation was run under RCP2.6 with low climate sensitivity (best case) and RCP8.5 with high climate sensitivity (worst case). The predicted future precipitation data was then used for flood modeling and inundation calculation using hydrological models and GIS. An integrated method taking into account flood depth, inundation duration and crop calendar was then used for potential damage calculation. The results show that under the impact of climate change, extreme precipitation and floods would be intensified, and as floods become more intensified, deeper and longer, the loss they would cause to rice production would increase significantly. The loss in 2050s under the worst case would be 30.1% and under the best case would be 10.3% greater than that in the baseline period (1986-2005). The results of this study provide valuable scientific information for policy maker in long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning to minimize potential damages of future floods.

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