Adaptation strategies in the Mekong delta
23/12/21 04:28PM
Chi Quang Truong, Benoit Gaudou, Patrick Taillandier, et al., Climate change in Viet Nam: Impacts and adaptation. A COP26 assessment report of the GEMMES Viet Nam project (MoNRE, AFD and IRD), 2021.
The
objective of Chapter 10 is to present how computational models can be
used to represent and understand the interactions between adaptation
strategies adopted at different spatial and social scales in several
climatic scenarios. These models are variations of a basic model called
LUCAS (for Land Use Change for Adaptation Strategies), a spatially
explicit agent-based model designed as a combination of social,
economic, and environmental dynamics with individual land use change
decisions. LUCAS simulates the complex interactions between individual
and collective strategies, and their combined and cumulative effects on
land use over time. Given a set of assumptions, parameters and
scenarios, it provides a picture of land use in the Mekong Delta in
2030, with a vision through to 2050. We show that being able to use a
model to consider adaptation efforts at the individual level and
proposed strategies at the regional level simultaneously enables a very
fine evaluation of the effectiveness of the latter, but also that this
approach supports the subsequent integration of more specialized models
(rice yields, salt and sediment transport, demographic evolution,
groundwater dynamics, etc.). Although kept simple for the purposes of
this chapter, virtual experiments based on models like LUCAS have the
potential to change the way adaptation planning is conducted in the
future.: The objective of Chapter 10 is to present how computational
models can be used to represent and understand the interactions between
adaptation strategies adopted at different spatial and social scales in
several climatic scenarios. These models are variations of a basic model
called LUCAS (for Land Use Change for Adaptation Strategies), a
spatially explicit agent-based model designed as a combination of
social, economic, and environmental dynamics with individual land use
change decisions. LUCAS simulates the complex interactions between
individual and collective strategies, and their combined and cumulative
effects on land use over time. Given a set of assumptions, parameters
and scenarios, it provides a picture of land use in the Mekong Delta in
2030, with a vision through to 2050. We show that being able to use a
model to consider adaptation efforts at the individual level and
proposed strategies at the regional level simultaneously enables a very
fine evaluation of the effectiveness of the latter, but also that this
approach supports the subsequent integration of more specialized models
(rice yields, salt and sediment transport, demographic evolution,
groundwater dynamics, etc.). Although kept simple for the purposes of
this chapter, virtual experiments based on models like LUCAS have the
potential to change the way adaptation planning is conducted in the
future.
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