Evidence of climatic change in Vietnam: Some implications for agricultural production.
19/11/18 03:56PM
Kien Nguyen Duc, Tiho Ancev and Alan Randall. Journal of Environmental Management, 2019, volume 231, pp. 524-545.
Abstract: Systemic changes
in environmental conditions, such as climate, can have a significant
impact on both natural and human systems.
This paper provides an improved understanding of the spatio-temporal
variations in underlying climate processes, and the potential effects
climate change may have on Vietnam's agricultural sector. Statistical
methods were combined with geostatistical techniques
to test the statistical significance of long-term trends in the
climatic variables, graphically representing the distribution of climate
patterns, identifying variations and trends of changes over time and
their likely effects on agricultural production. By
using records of monthly precipitation and temperature for a relatively
long-term period (1975–2014) over a high density of 112 meteorological
stations across the country, robust statistical and visual evidence of
climatic change throughout Vietnam are provided.
The Mann-Kendall trend test confirms the statistically significant
long-term trends of rainfall and temperature in many regions across the
country. The visual analysis shows remarkable changes in the
spatio-temporal distribution patterns of those variables
and most of the ‘hotspot’ areas identified by geostatistical mapping
are in areas with confirmed long-term trends. The long-term significant
trends are also concentrated in areas with very high proportion of
agricultural land, particularly land used for rice
production in the Red River and Mekong River deltas. The findings
deliver a better understanding of underlying climate processes and
impacts across regions of Vietnam and provide a basis to develop
effective climate-related policies for agricultural production
in response to changing climatic conditions.